|
Zimbabwe - Eddie Cross on the aftermath
The Aftermath
Zimbabwe is in a deep economic and political crisis. The flawed election outcome and the re-election of Mugabe as President simply deepen and intensify that crisis. For 22 years Zimbabwe has lived beyond its means and despite the introduction of over US$5,6 billion in international aid since independence, the country is now mired in debt. Debt servicing takes up the majority of state revenues and all external debt is no longer being serviced or repaid. Zanu PF is committed to unsustainable economic policies and these will further exacerbate the debt problem in the current year.
In addition to the macro economic problems faced by the country, its industrial and commercial base is on the edge of collapse and the agricultural industry can no longer feed the people or supply raw materials to industry. Foreign exchange earnings from exports and the tourist trade have plunged 35 per cent in two years and continue to decline. Shortages of food, drugs, soap and a wide range of other essential consumables are intensifying, as the non-availability of foreign currency to buy imports becomes more acute.
Unemployment, ever a problem for the country, now affects 90 per cent of the adult population and a third of the country faces starvation because of crop failures and the decline in economic activity. A health crisis is affecting the great majority of the population for whom any form of medical treatment is beyond reach. 35 per cent of all adults are HIV positive and shortages of drugs and consumables have turned the State Hospitals into mortuaries. If you are poor, life expectancy has declined to less than 40 years, for a woman it’s now below 37 years. The quality of life for the great majority has become intolerable with 40 per cent of the urban population homeless and rural poverty and hunger almost universal.
The newly elected President is responsible for this collapse and economic hardship. He has no answers and only offers more isolation and intensified sanctions. Now to this list of failures he has subverted the rule of law and undermined the faith that we as a Nation had that democracy offered a way out of the morass we are in. The evidence of the rigging is overwhelming – an interim report was given to the Commonwealth Troika and we are sure it had an impact on their deliberations. The lengths to which Zanu PF went in their efforts to win this election at any cost was quite extraordinary. It pointed to what was at stake for the leadership of Zanu if they lost their grip on power.
As it is their victory is in fact a time bomb – already ticking away. The first trigger has gone off in the form of the suspension of Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth. No matter what spin they put on this it clearly isolates the Zanu PF government as illegitimate and will lead to non-recognition by other groups very shortly. Perhaps suspension from the powerful ACP/EU group will follow. The US have added more names to the sanctions hit list and New Zealand has imposed sanctions while the Swiss have frozen accounts and condemned the manner in which the elections were run. Ghana has come out strongly in support of the suspension and the list of those who will not recognise Mugabe’s victory will grow steadily longer while the small group who will continue to be seen as Mugabe allies will shrink.
The second stage of the trigger mechanism on this time bomb is the food crisis – now at critical levels. The 2001/02 crop is now officially a "write off", maize imports are not touching sides and new shortages are appearing as fast as they try to put paid to existing shortages – next week it will be bread as we are running out of yeast. Long queues are everywhere – sugar, soap, oil, margarine, and maize meal – bread? Eggs and poultry are short and expensive and milk is becoming hard to get. We are just going into the dry season and now face 7 months of dry weather, great for tourists but lousy for a hungry people. When all home resources and those of the extended family are finished we are going to be a hungry and an angry nation. I hear that elements in Zanu are panicked by this situation and fear for the worse.
Mbeki and Obasanjo persuaded their Commonwealth associates not to impose sanctions but to give them a year to get Zimbabwe back in line. How to do that? The cheap and easy way was a coalition government but there are no takers for that in the MDC and pretty few in Zanu. So what next? It seems to me that there is only one road out of this chasm – a fresh presidential election under Commonwealth or UN supervision and control. The African leaders have a year to act before the world community takes this matter out of their hands and sorts out the mess itself. Mugabe is not going to co-operate and if Mr Mbeki had any notions in this regard they are now surely dead after the recent violence and the action taken to charge Morgan and two colleagues with treason. Mbeki and Obasanjo will have to pull Mugabe out of his hole and force him to the table. Once there they will have to ensure he does not leave the room until he has agreed to a further test of his popularity in the country of his birth.
As for us in the MDC we are picking ourselves up off the floor and dusting each other down. Paul Temba Nyathi has gone to London to fight on the diplomatic front and the rest of us foot soldiers are getting ready for the next scrap. I am impressed by the spirit in the country – at first it was like being at a funeral, then people started realizing the extent to which they had been duped and this emotion was replaced by anger, then determination. Mugabe must know this; the MDC is not in the same league as the Forum, or ZUM. It’s a mass movement of people who are determined to win a principled and democratic struggle for their rights. I think the world saw a little of that in the long lines of people who waited for days to cast their votes.
The main problem we have to now contend with is that of violence against the MDC and its supporters. As has been the case for two years now the farmers and their staffs are bearing the brunt as they are forced off their properties and their farms are looted by gangs of Zanu PF thugs. The latest killing of Terry Ford is just another example and I am sure that the image of the small dog lying next to his dead master in the garden will stay with all of us for a long time. We mourn Terry and all the others who have lost their lives in this situation – these are not killings by a senseless mob but by agents of government. The victims have no recourse to the Police or the Courts and cannot even defend themselves. If they do, they find themselves in prison or worse.
We have resolved that we will not co-operate with Zanu PF in any form until this violence stops and it must be known to the outside world that Mugabe could stop this madness with a single phone call. Mugabe must also know that every coin has two sides – taking Morgan to Court over spurious treason charges will mean that we will have little compunction in laying charges against him and his associates who bear responsibility by association for these crimes. The Court that judges then will be no kangaroo court of selected lackeys and the full weight of the law, both local and international will be brought to bear. Milosevic never thought he would end up in The Hague. It can happen again.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 22nd March 2002
|
|
You can make a difference
|
|
 |
Make a donation |
|
Support Zimbabwe at an event |
|
Lobby your local Government member |
|
Become a member of the ZIC |
|
